Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory di, 25-04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON BOTH
SATELLITE FIXES AND A PARTIAL 242357Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWING
DEEP CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY TD 03W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-TO-LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS SOMETIME NEAR TAU 36, CHANGING ITS TRAJECTORY TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, MOST NOTABLY BY THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. BEYOND TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DRIVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO SHARPLY INCREASE RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASED SPREAD IN TRACK POSSIBILITIES
FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. GFDN AND COAMPS-TC ARE NOW THE OUTLIERS
SHOWING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, WHICH CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR
CHARACTERIZATION OF THE SYSTEM SHOWING RAPID WEAKENING IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT DIFFER IN THE POSITION
AND TIMING OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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