MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 32// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING AN 18NM EYE WITH DEEP BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. A 062244Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A CONSTRICTING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SMALL EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND INCREASING SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, INDICATED BY A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED OVER THE TYPHOON; HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 115 KNOTS DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. JUST BEFORE TAU 24, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAK TYPHOON. JUST AFTER TAU 36, TY SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR QUANZHOU. BY TAU 48, TY SOUDELOR WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN