MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 41// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SOLID CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING A 25 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE MSI ALSO INDICATES SOME PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE CORE, WHICH IS ALSO OBSERVED IN 232233Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN MSI AND RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TY 16W HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, RESULTING IN A NARROWING OF THE CPA DISTANCE TO KADENA AB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHT DEGRADATION IN CONVECTION. THE 34 AND 50 KNOT WIND FIELD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WAS ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARD BASED ON THE LASTEST TC STRUCTURE GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. SSTS ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, SMALL CHANGES TO THE KADENA AB CPA AND WIND FIELD WERE MADE AS NOTED ABOVE. B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, STEERED BY THE BUILDING NER. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WINDOW, HOWEVER INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES GONI HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY, CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY DEGRADED DEEP CONVECTION AND FALLING DVORAK FINAL-T VALUES. AFTER TAU 24, THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND NORTH ASSUMES STEERING. GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A STEADY DISSIPATION TREND BEGINNING BY TAU 24 DUE TO HIGHER VWS, LAND, INTERACTION WITH KYUSHU, AND EVENTUALLY THE COOLER WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN. AT THE SAME TIME, TY 16W WILL BEGIN AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHICH SHOULD COMPLETE BEFORE TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND OVER THE DRPK AND CHINA. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 24, THEN SPREADS WITH VARYING DEGREES OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. AN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN