Tropical Storm DANNY Advisory vr, 21-08

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   3(21)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)   2(24)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  13(23)   2(25)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  15(25)   1(26)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  12(22)   1(23)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   1(20)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   X(15)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)

GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG
FORECASTER BERG