Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory zo, 20-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTENING RAIN
BANDS AND A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A FORMATIVE EYE AS
EVIDENCED BY A CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS SURROUNDED BY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 192054Z SSMIS 37GHZ
COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0/45KTS TO T4.0/65KTS AND
REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SST
VALUES OF 29-30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STR AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 90KTS BY TAU 36 AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THEN TO 105KTS BY TAU 72,
FUELED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE DYNAMICS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AFTER IT CRESTS THE STR, PEAKING AT 110KTS
BEFORE IT STARTS WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND BY TAU
120 SHOULD BE DOWN TO 95KTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO
150NM AT TAU 72 AND 175NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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