Tropical Storm ONE-E Advisory di, 07-06

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Satellite and microwave data indicate that the depression is not
well organized.  Although there is still a lot of strong
convection, last-light visible images suggested that the low-level
circulation was separating from the mid-level center.   The initial
wind speed will remain 30 kt in accordance with the CI numbers from
TAFB/SAB.  Increasing southerly shear should cause the depression to
weaken tomorrow.  All of the guidance show the cyclone losing some
strength by late Tuesday, and the official forecasts follows their
lead.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 8 kt on the east
side of a mid-level trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf
of Mexico.   While a vertically intact system would likely move
onshore, more guidance tonight is suggesting that the low-level
center will stay south of Mexico.  This solution makes sense since
the low and mid-level centers already appear to be separating.  The
official forecast is thus shifted southward, between the ECMWF and
GFDL model, keeping the center over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high
terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 14.5N  95.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 15.0N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 15.6N  94.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 15.5N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake