Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory vr, 14-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SARIKA)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT TS 24W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WHICH REMAINS OBSCURED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 132219Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING REMAINS SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AS THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND
BEEN REPLACED BY A WEAK POINT SOURCE, DECREASING THE PRESSURE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND MORE RAPID CONSOLIDATION. TS 24W REMAINS IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW AIDED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED POINT SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE
MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ADDITIONALLY A 300000Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TS SARIKA IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS SARIKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS
SARIKA WILL BE TRACKING IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
VERY LOW VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER 31 CELSIUS. AS TS SARIKA TRACKS THROUGH THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, BEFORE REACHING
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON
AT TAU 48. TS SARIKA WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON, BUT WILL REEMERGE STILL AT TYPOON
STRENGTH AND REINTENSIFY ONCE OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF AND HWRF (TWO PRIMARY OUTLIERS),
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF LESS
THAN 100NM THROUGH TAU 72. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
THE FORWARD SPEED AND TIMING OF LANDFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, WITH HWRF AND COTC TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTH
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS HAINAN AND DO NOT SHOW TS 24W INTERACTING WITH
THE BREAK IN THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE SOUTHERN,
STRAIGHT RUNNER SCENARIO WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER HAINAN ISLAND
BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION
CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER HAINAN. WITH THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 AND BEFORE LANDFALL. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON BOTH THE TRACK AND SPEED
SOLUTION.//
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