Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory za, 15-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 142104Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 142331Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A DEFINED
LLCC WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TS 25W
IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5- 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. TS HAIMA IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 25W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AND REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY UNDER THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. A STRONGER STR TO THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE CONTINUED
MODEL STABILITY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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