Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory zo, 16-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTED LANDFALL IN LUZON SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST WARNING,
RESULTING IN RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A WEAKENING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE
DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS IN BOLINAO, PHILIPPINES AHEAD OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TY 24W HAS BEEN WEAKENING DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS IT EXITS LUZON AND ENTERS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
ALLOWING FOR AN EVENTUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TY 24W ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN ITS
VORTEX STRUCTURE. THEREAFTER, A STEADY RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED. LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND IS EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 48, WITH PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 90 KNOTS EXPECTED JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN
VIETNAM AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING
STR. TY 24W WILL SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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