Tropical Storm MUJIGAE Advisory vr, 02-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (MUJIGAE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN LLCC THAT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED OVER THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE ZAMBALES MOUNTAINS. PAGASA RADARS IN ADDITION TO
MSI LOOP GIVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 30 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE
FRICTIONAL AFFECTS OF LUZON AND SPARE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA.
UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. TD 22W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A STR TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE STR, TRACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TD MUJIGAE TRACKS
THROUGH THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AS TD 22W TRACKS THROUGH THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA,
AND INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, WITH ITS LOWER OHC VALUES, EXPECT
SLIGHT DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE VIETNAM-CHINA
BOARDER BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 22W WILL DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND TAKE A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN DUE TO THE STR AXIS
AND FRICTIONAL FORCES. TD MUJIGAE WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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