Tropical Storm NANMADOL Advisory di, 04-07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND, INDICATED BY WARMING
CONVECTIVE TOPS, AS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU. THE
INITIAL  POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION FEATURE ON
A JMA COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING ONE FROM UNZENDAKE, 6 NM FROM STORM CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TS 05W IS ACCELERATING ALONG
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NANMADOL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
AND IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND AS IT TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF KYUSHU, SHIKOKU,
AND HONSHU. AFTER TAU 12, TS 05W WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 24. THE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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