MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS MOVED OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEPER CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 120233Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SPARSELY SCATTERED AROUND THE LLCC, AND THE CORRESPONDING 120233Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS. TD 19W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION. B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. GIVEN THAT THE LLCC HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, LANDFALL IN VIETNAM IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN