Tropical Storm MUJIGAE Advisory do, 01-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
267 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW
BANDING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE. A 302157Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWS SOME
25 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC THAT ARE NOT RAIN
CONTAMINATED AND A 302312Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION ON
THE WESTERN SIDE AND PROVIDES MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DT OF 1.5 FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO LOW VWS AND THUS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TD 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR ANCHORED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 22W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
EXPECT CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 AS SSTS AND VWS
REMAIN FAVORABLE. BY TAU 24, TD 22W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN LUZON AND
QUICKLY TRACK THOUGH THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES, RE-EMERGING IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 36. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, EXPECT TD 22W TO INTENSITY TO A PEAK
OF 55 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT LIMITED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THOUGH THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST, TD 22W WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM,
NORTH OF HANOI AND BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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