MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FULLY CONCEALED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND A 110354Z N-19 SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 45 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VWS WHICH IS OFFSET BY FAVORABLE SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE SYSTEM IS BEING CONSIDERED TROPICAL AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC AND THE 110358Z AMSU-B CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWING A NEAR WARM-CORE CENTER. AS SUCH, JTWC HAS REINSTITUTED WARNINGS. B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH ARE TRACKING AROUND 40 DEGREES. EXPECT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48 AS SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BAROCLINIC. BY TAU 96, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN