Tropical Storm IN-FA Advisory do, 22-07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.3N 126.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 212247Z SSMIS
SERIES INDICATE THAT TY 09W IS IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ERC AND UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT THE INTENSITY
TREND
FLAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT
IS IMPROVING. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON AVERAGE OF 3
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE POSITION IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX ON
15NM RAGGED EYE. A 212331Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS GALE FORCE
EASTERLIES EXTEND TO NORTH OF OKINAWA AND GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES
OVER THE SENKAKUS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME
PRESSURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THE SYSTEM IS COCOONED AND ABLE TO GENERATE MODERATE
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 212228Z
   CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 212340Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT CENTER PEAKING
OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN HAS FORCED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE EQUATORWARD OF
THE EXPECTED TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT THE PRESSURE IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AND TY 09W WILL BEND POLEWARD IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
ONCE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD LEG, IT WILL ROAR OVER ISHIGAKIJIMA AT
ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS. BEYOND THE SENKAKUS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE,
SENDING THE SYSTEM ON A PERMANENT DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL
ITS LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI.
MODEL DISCUSSION: A MINORITY OF MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEP
THE SYSTEM SEAWARD OF SHANGHAI WHILE DECAYING IT, BUT THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LANDFALL SCENARIO. VORTEX TRACKERS ARE
IN REASONABLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT BEYOND THE 27TH
LATITUDE THE MEMBERS OF CONSENSUS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH GFS,
THE AMERICAN ENSEMBLE, AND COAMPS TC STAYING SEAWARD OF SHANGHAI.
ECMWF, JGSM, AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE STAY WELL WEST OF SHANGHAI.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS WITH THE LATTER GROUPING AND CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THEN DROPS SHARPLY BELOW
CONSENSUS AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL, AS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FROM THOSE MODELS REMAINING OVER WATER IS PULLING THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS FALSELY HIGHER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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