MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE FIXES AND A PARTIAL 242357Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS SOMETIME NEAR TAU 36, CHANGING ITS TRAJECTORY TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, MOST NOTABLY BY THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. BEYOND TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DRIVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SHARPLY INCREASE RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASED SPREAD IN TRACK POSSIBILITIES FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. GFDN AND COAMPS-TC ARE NOW THE OUTLIERS SHOWING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, WHICH CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR CHARACTERIZATION OF THE SYSTEM SHOWING RAPID WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT DIFFER IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN