Tropical Storm ELSA Advisory do, 08-07

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2021

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   X(20)   X(20)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   X(15)   X(15)

EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)

BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)  13(13)  10(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLIP NY       34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DOVER DE       34  X   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   2( 2)  24(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   3( 3)  28(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   5( 5)  12(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   5( 5)  27(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

RICHMOND VA    34  X  16(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X  23(23)  11(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK VA     34  X  22(22)  10(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X  19(19)  11(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  20(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

GREENSBORO NC  34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

RALEIGH NC     34  X  21(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X  32(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  2  30(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SURF CITY NC   34  1  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

WILMINGTON NC  34  1  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  2   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

FLORENCE SC    34 16  16(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

COLUMBIA SC    34 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

LITTLE RIVER   34  4  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  6  11(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 13   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

CHARLESTON SC  34 22   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 42   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

AUGUSTA GA     34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

SAVANNAH GA    34 75   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)

KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

WAYCROSS GA    34 27   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
FORECASTER BLAKE