Tropical Storm BAVI Advisory do, 27-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTHWEST OF
INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS
A FULLY DECOUPLED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION NOW
SHEARED AROUND TWO HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC WHICH
REMAINS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF KOREA BAY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC,
SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED LLC EVIDENT IN A 262232Z
CORIOLIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND T4.0 FROM
RJTD, AS WELL AS AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.8 (63 KNOTS) ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY BAVI LIES IN AN EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE AND
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, LYING UNDER STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WITH
STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VWS, AND SSTS LESS THAN 22 DEG (CELSIUS). TY 09W IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TY 09W WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR
CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHWESTERN NORTH KOREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO TERRAIN
INTERACTION. THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND IT IS FORECAST TO FULLY TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24 OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT THEN BIFURCATES
INTO TWO DISTINCT SCENARIOS. THE GFS, NVGM AND HWRF FAVOR A TURN TO THE
WEST AFTER TAU 12, EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEASTERN
CHINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONTINUE TRACKING THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FAVORS THE CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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