Tropical Storm ALEX Advisory ma, 06-06

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Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
500 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex is looking increasingly less like a tropical cyclone and more
like a post-tropical entity. While the low-level circulation is
clearly evident on conventional satellite imagery, it is largely
devoid of deep central convection, with the nearest cold cloud tops
below -60C located more than 200 nm to the northeast. Those well
removed colder cloud tops are forming in response to a digging
mid-latitude trough that will ultimately lead to Alex's demise. In
the meantime, there was a convective band east of Alex that produced
tropical-storm-force winds over Bermuda this morning, and these
winds will likely continue until the center passes by to the north
later today. Earlier Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found flight
level winds that still supported an intensity of 60 kt at 0600 UTC.
However, assuming some weakening has occurred since then given
the current lack of convection near the center, the initial
intensity has been reduced to 55 kt for this advisory.

Alex is expected to continue moving over cooler waters in an
environment of increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-latitude
air, and the cyclone is likely to become extratropical or a remnant
low later today. Beyond 36 hours, the GFS and ECMWF forecast an
upstream mid-latitude trough to spawn a new surface baroclinic
cyclone northeast of Alex, causing the former tropical cyclone to be
absorbed at the end of the forecast period. The current NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, though it
now moves up extratropical transition to later today.

Alex continues to move briskly to the east-northeast at 065/24 kt.
The cyclone should remain on this general heading over the next 36
hours or so before it is absorbed. Once again the forecast this
cycle is a bit faster than the previous one, blending the consensus
aids and an average between the operational GFS and ECMWF runs
(GFEX).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda today, and
tropical storm conditions are expected on the island through this
afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 33.5N  66.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 34.7N  62.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/0600Z 36.7N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/1800Z 39.5N  49.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake