Tropical Storm TALIM Advisory za, 16-09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION, LOCATED NORTHWEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE PGTW
FIX AND A 152217Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. AVAILABLE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ARE DECOUPLING AS THE SYSTEM IS IMPACTED BY STRONG (20-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT TAPS INTO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TS TALIM IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL EXPERIENCE GRADUAL DISSIPATION
THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH WARM SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS TALIM IS FORECAST TO
MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN KYUSHU AT TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HONSHU OUT OVER THE
SEA OF JAPAN. AROUND TAU 60, TS TALIM WILL MAKE A SECONDARY LANDFALL
ON HOKKAIDO. AFTER INITIAL LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. TS
20W WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72, TRACKING THROUGH THE
SEA OF OKHOTSK AS A COLD CORE LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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